Sunday, March 31, 2019

#63 why time flies, number of friends (again) and how long it takes to make them, space travel, a useful word




Good afternoon.

            I have been resisting the temptation to get out into the yard and gardens to start cleaning up the detritus from winter.  It's probably a little early to do so when there are still small mounds of snow and ice here and there.

            Why time flies.  An interesting explanation.  I'm not sure I buy it, but here it is.  A professor of mechanical engineering at Duke, Adrian Bejan—so prima facie, at least, the source is perfectly reputable—argues that the reason time seems to go by faster as we get older is that we cannot process images as quickly with our brain as we get older.  So time speeds up because of physics.

"People are often amazed at how much they remember from days that seemed to last forever in their youth," said Bejan. "It's not that their experiences were much deeper or more meaningful, it's just that they were being processed in rapid fire."

            The gist of the argument is that the nerves in our brain grow and grow, so it takes longer for an image to make its way through our neural network.  In addition, the neuron paths deteriorate as we get older, so the electrical signals (that are part of the creation of images in the brain) get slowed.  Bejan points out that infant eyes move much more quickly than adult eyes—and thus absorb more information faster.  "The end result is that, because older people are viewing fewer new images in the same amount of actual time, it seems to them as though time is passing more quickly. . . .  'Days seemed to last longer in your youth because the young mind receives more images during one day than the same mind in old age.'"

            I suppose that's as good an explanation as any.  We who are past 40 have certainly experienced the phenomenon; the question is why the perception.  One wouldn't have expected the answer to come from mechanical engineering.

* * *

            Some time ago I noted the work of anthropologist and evolutionary psychologist Robin Dunbar at the University of Oxford.  He hypothesized that there are limits to the number of people that most of us have in various degrees of friendship.  Here's an excerpt from a New Yorker article about the Dunbar numbers:

The Dunbar number is actually a series of them. The best known, a hundred and fifty, is the number of people we call casual friends—the people, say, you'd invite to a large party. (In reality, it's a range: a hundred at the low end and two hundred for the more social of us.) From there, through qualitative interviews coupled with analysis of experimental and survey data, Dunbar discovered that the number grows and decreases according to a precise formula, roughly a "rule of three." The next step down, fifty, is the number of people we call close friends—perhaps the people you'd invite to a group dinner. You see them often, but not so much that you consider them to be true intimates. Then there's the circle of fifteen: the friends that you can turn to for sympathy when you need it, the ones you can confide in about most things. The most intimate Dunbar number, five, is your close support group. These are your best friends (and often family members). On the flipside, groups can extend to five hundred, the acquaintance level, and to fifteen hundred, the absolute limit—the people for whom you can put a name to a face. While the group sizes are relatively stable, their composition can be fluid. Your five today may not be your five next week; people drift among layers and sometimes fall out of them altogether.

            In part keying off Dunbar's work, a communications professor at the University of Kansas investigated how long it takes for someone to go from acquaintance to friend (of some degree).  On the one hand, "the more time two people spend together, the more likely they are to become friends. On the other hand, there are people we see regularly but don't consider friends. So just how many hours of togetherness does it take for an acquaintance to turn into a friend?"

            In a couple of interesting studies, Professor Hall "found that it took about 50 hours of interaction to move from acquaintance to casual friend, about 90 hours to move from casual friend to friend, and more than 200 hours to qualify as a best friend."  If people spent no more than 30 hours together, they didn't develop a friendship bond at any level.  However:  just spending time together doesn't necessarily lead to friendship.  Many, perhaps most of us, have spent many hours together with people where we work(ed) but didn't become friends with them; either we didn't like them much or (at least in my case) were happy to work with them but not interested in developing any relationship outside work.

            How people interact is also important, no surprise.  "'When you spend time joking around, having meaningful conversations, catching up with one another, all of these types of communication episodes contribute to speedier friendship development.'"  For instance, to ask someone about what's happening in their life means there's interest in keeping a relationship up to date.  We don't usually engage in that kind of conversation with many of the people we work with or interact with in other settings except perhaps on a superficial level.  We don't bother because we aren't interested.

            And the point is?  Hall argues that "you have to invest" time.  There is ample research demonstrating the importance of friendships to a healthy life.  "Having friends helps to keep us healthy, both physically and mentally. On the other hand, a lack of social connectedness is as bad for us as smoking or obesity."  (ß I don't know if that specific claim is backed up by evidence, but it makes sense to me on its face.  I know that the morbidity and mortality statistics for single older men are scary.)   So, he says, people need to make it a priority in life to spend time with people.

            I wonder how communication on social media counts.  My speculation is that it can be an additional, or supplemental, way to stay in touch with people who are already friends, but that it doesn't contribute more than an iota to the development of friendships.  Few people use social media for any exchanges of substance, so they wouldn't fall in the category of meaningful conversations.  The same is probably true for email, although that can be used for more substantive exchanges if both parties are willing; in my case, for example, when Kathy and I first met, for several months in the evenings after work we exchanged hundreds of emails on topics important to building a relationship.  Those emails couldn't substitute for personal interaction, of course, but they sure helped clear up a lot of questions anyone has in that context.  We could elaborate on our answers and exchanges in face-to-face conversations.

            The New Yorker article again:

As constant use of social media has become the new normal, however, people have started challenging the continued relevance of Dunbar's number: Isn't it easier to have more friends when we have Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram to help us to cultivate and maintain them? Some, like the University of California, Berkeley, professor Morten Hansen, have pointed out that social media has facilitated more effective collaborations. Our real-world friends tend to know the same people that we do, but, in the online world, we can expand our networks strategically, leading to better business outcomes. Yet, when researchers tried to determine whether virtual networks increase our strong ties as well as our weak ones (the ones that Hansen had focussed on), they found that, for now, the essential Dunbar number, a hundred and fifty, has remained constant. When Bruno Gonçalves and his colleagues at Indiana University at Bloomington looked at whether Twitter had changed the number of relationships that users could maintain over a six-month period, they found that, despite the relative ease of Twitter connections as opposed to face-to-face one, the individuals that they followed could only manage between one and two hundred stable connections. When the Michigan State University researcher Nicole Ellison surveyed a random sample of undergraduates about their Facebook use, she found, while that their median number of Facebook friends was three hundred, they only counted an average of seventy-five as actual friends.

There's no question, Dunbar agrees, that networks like Facebook are changing the nature of human interaction. "What Facebook does and why it's been so successful in so many ways is it allows you to keep track of people who would otherwise effectively disappear," he said. But one of the things that keeps face-to-face friendships strong is the nature of shared experience: you laugh together; you dance together; you gape at the hot-dog eaters on Coney Island together. We do have a social-media equivalent—sharing, liking, knowing that all of your friends have looked at the same cat video on YouTube as you did—but it lacks the synchronicity of shared experience. It's like a comedy that you watch by yourself: you won't laugh as loudly or as often, even if you're fully aware that all your friends think it's hysterical. We've seen the same movie, but we can't bond over it in the same way.

With social media, we can easily keep up with the lives and interests of far more than a hundred and fifty people. But without investing the face-to-face time, we lack deeper connections to them, and the time we invest in superficial relationships comes at the expense of more profound ones. We may widen our network to two, three, or four hundred people that we see as friends, not just acquaintances, but keeping up an actual friendship requires resources. "The amount of social capital you have is pretty fixed," Dunbar said. "It involves time investment. If you garner connections with more people, you end up distributing your fixed amount of social capital more thinly so the average capital per person is lower." If we're busy putting in the effort, however minimal, to "like" and comment and interact with an ever-widening network, we have less time and capacity left for our closer groups. Traditionally, it's a sixty-forty split of attention: we spend sixty per cent of our time with our core groups of fifty, fifteen, and five, and forty with the larger spheres. Social networks may be growing our base, and, in the process, reversing that balance.

            I suppose none of this is revelatory, but I've thought about it in connection with class reunions.  I'm a member of the committee planning our 50-year reunion this coming September and I've attended most of my high school class reunions (every five years since we graduated).  I concluded early on that they're a lousy place to re-engage with people or to make new friends.  Hall's work demonstrates that a 10-minute chat with a classmate at a reunion won't lead to a friendship at any level unless both people follow up repeatedly.  The parting lines "we'll have to stay in touch" or "we'll have to get together" may be a disguise for exiting a conversation with no intention of getting in touch with the person—but even if they are genuinely meant, unless they are followed up actively, no matter the good intentions, they will be meaningless.

            Given that state of the relationship world, I've been nudging classmates together in casual lunches in various groupings in the expectation that some of them could become friends, either with me or with each other.  If it's true that it takes 50 hours just to move from acquaintance to casual friend, it's an uphill battle in terms of reconnecting at recurring monthly lunches, much less at a one-time reunion event.  I wonder if that 50 hours can be reduced if (1) both people decide that they want to move beyond acquaintance toward a friendship at some level, and (2) common background demographics pave the way, at least in part (e.g., high school classmates shared a school experience and, at least for those of us in public schools in the 1950s and 1960s, came from the same geographic area of a city). 

            In any event, aside from reunions and such, the work of Hall and Dunbar provide an interesting way to think about your friendships and how you spend your time.

* * *

            Awhile ago Elliott sent me an email out of the blue. 

Sitting in bed at about 1 a.m. wondering:

We know that in the vacuum of space you can accelerate to a speed of X, shut off your propulsion system, and you will continue to drift indefinitely in a straight line at a speed of X. At least until you collide with something or enter a gravitational field that alters your trajectory. Because in space there is no resistance or friction. So why then is it not possible to leave the gas on and accelerate all the way to light speed?

In theory it is possible, or at least partially. You could, with an indefinite fuel supply, accelerate all the way there. Problem is we don't have effective enough fuel to realistically accomplish this because light speed is really fast and takes a long time to accelerate to. Which I knew. There's also that issue with physics about what happens to solid matter as it approaches light speed which I don't completely understand but I do know exists and is a barrier. Though in this case not actually relevant to my particular question.

But in my late night internet browsing I discovered there's another barrier I didn't know about which seems obvious now: Space isn't really empty. Not the obvious planets and stars and whatnot. But the 'vacuum' of space is not entirely empty. It's full of nearly-microscopic particulate matter left over from any number of things, as well as trace quantities of gasses and the like.

Normally these bits of dust don't factor into equations of human made objects in space. But as you approach even a fraction of the speed of light, suddenly those invisible gas molecules and grains of space sand become bullets relative to you. At a certain speed you are effectively ramming your space vessel into a constant and endless torrent of machine gun fire, even when flying through 'nothing.' So even if you calculated a path around any asteroids and moons you would still be ripped apart by real, physical objects long before you ever got to the point where the density of your matter and all that Einsteinian stuff becomes relevant.

I don't know what normal people think about when drifting to sleep but this is me on a regular basis.

            I told him that I ponder much more mundane matters, like the disposition of rocks and minerals and where to spread the mulch when spring appears and I can work in the gardens.  His discovery, however, does suggest that inter-galactic travel, if it ever happens, will have to be via some undiscovered mechanism that doesn't take thousands of years or subject a ship to machine-gun fire from microscopic pieces of matter in space.

* * *

            I and many of the people I know are suffering from Weltschmerz.  The term seems to have variable definitions; the two that I kenned are "a mood of weariness or sadness about life arising from the acute awareness of evil and suffering" and "mental depression or apathy caused by comparison of the actual state of the world with an ideal state."

            But if I exercise the privilege I have of being able to ignore the world for periods of time, then I am reasonably chipper.  I hope you are as well.

-- Gary

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