Tuesday, April 3, 2018

#41 5x5 rule, evil, uncertainty, wealth and luck, sexual harassment revisited




Good morning.


            Sometimes among the dreck there are a few gems.  I ran across one Internet meme that I liked, the 5 x 5 rule:  "If it's not gonna matter in 5 years, don't spend more than 5 minutes upset by it."  I'm not sure about using five years as the standard because there can be short-term concerns that are worth being upset about, but the general advice seems to me to be worthwhile.  I need to remember this at night in particular, those times when my brain will not let go of what is invariably a trivial matter that shouldn't bother me at all, much less that it will matter in five years, but that will not let me sleep.

* * *

It isn't possible to speak apodictically about evil, but one can muse about it.  My comments on the Lord's Prayer provoked a brief exchange with a minister friend of mine (for whom I have enormous respect) about the distinction between "lead us not into . . . " and "let us not fall into . . . " and about the nature of evil.

            My friend the minister observes that

we monotheists do not do well with the concept of evil, and God's role in evil in our existence.  The Hebrew Bible is really clear about Satan--even being one of God's advisors--and the book of Job really takes this head on.  Modern Jews have adopted Rabbi Kushner's thought that Bad things Happen, and the God walks with us as we live/transform/survive the losses. As Christians we have gotten to the observation you have made, that a loving God wouldn't create that. . . .  BUT it exists. . . .  By and large, Evil is a community characteristic, and sin is personal.

            I wrote back that I was intrigued by the comment that evil is community while sin is personal.  It's individuals who commit evil acts; a community may make them easier or more difficult to commit, but it's one or more individuals who commit the acts.  She explained that "as a group we dislike evil--it is a mystical entity, yet also a high-drama resource for Hollywood.  As long as it is part of the 'out there' for us each personally, it can be real . . . which is what makes it a community-level characteristic.  Second, sin is what we each do when we 'fall out of relationship with the sacred', whether that is Christian or the Brahma sutras, or whomever our own spirituality defines that to be . . . and yes, thus a personal issue. . . ."  She agreed, however, that "there are people who do evil things and may even be described as 'evil'.  We know them from our front pages and penitentiaries."

Wikipedia says there are roughly four positions when it comes to evil:

1.  Moral absolutism holds that good and evil are fixed concepts established by a deity or deities, nature, morality, common sense, or some other source.
2.  Amoralism claims that good and evil are meaningless, that there is no moral ingredient in nature.
3.  Moral relativism holds that standards of good and evil are only products of local culture, custom, or prejudice.
4.  Moral universalism is the attempt to find a compromise between the absolutist sense of morality, and the relativist view; universalism claims that morality is only flexible to a degree, and that what is truly good or evil can be determined by examining what is commonly considered to be evil amongst all humans.

            I'm somewhat in camp #2, but with enough disquiet that I'm also in #4.  One can argue that "evil" is a theological or philosophical term, as is "sin."  Nature indeed does not have a moral element ("red in tooth and claw").  It is not evil when the lions kill their prey, it was not evil when the meteor smashed into the earth and wiped out the dinosaurs, it is not evil when a volcano erupts (or a storm hits) and hundreds or thousands of people (and animals) are killed (except insofar as inept, incompetent, or intentional human actions put the people and animals in harm's way).

            With respect to humans, actions can have results I would describe as "good":  promoting individual, societal, and planetary well-being and happiness.  "Bad" actions are those which produce the opposite result.  Of course there are many shades of gray between absolute good and bad, and I'm not even sure there is an absolute in either case. 

            All of us can, if we stop to think about it, trace a causal chain of events that led up to whatever we just did.  I put ice cubes in the water because I don't like drinking scotch and water at room temperature; I go to the refrigerator because that's where the ice is; I am drinking the scotch and water because that is something I do with Kathy on some days; I drink scotch and water because I developed a taste for it decades ago; etc.  You can follow the same chain of events for someone who does "bad" things:  commits a murder (it does not promote individual well-being) or rapes someone or steals a car.  Or leads a nation into genocide (see, e.g., Hitler):  circumstances of the country and world at the time, the history of Germany, combined with his background and oratorical skills, led to his rise.  To use the term evil in all of these contexts, in my view, is unhelpful.

            On the other hand, this line of thinking does make me uneasy.  Ron Rosenbaum, who wrote Explaining Hitler, talked with Alan Bullock, the first Hitler biographer (A Study in Tyranny, 1952), who exclaimed to Rosenbaum about Hitler, "If he isn't evil, then who is? . . .  If he isn't evil the word has no meaning."  I'm reluctant to refrain from characterizing Hitler as evil.  There are other figures in history about whom I'd also use the term.

            If bad actions are those that reduce individual, societal, and planetary well-being and happiness, and if I set aside qualms about determinism, then I can talk myself into arguing that bad actions at the further end of the spectrum are "evil."  I cannot draw a line; like Justice Stewart and pornography, I know it when I see it even if I can't define it.  One discrimination I can ponder is that an individual action—murder, rape, theft—may not rise to the level of evil, especially when it's possible to trace a probable causal chain of events that led to the act.  A conscious political act, or pursuit of acts, that will lead to widespread death or poverty (thus premature death in many cases) or debasement of human life would meet my definition of evil.  (Following that line of reasoning, I can conclude that libertarian and many GOP political positions on economic matters, because of the consequences that would ensue if they were adopted, are evil.  Opposition to addressing the threat of climate change would fall in the same category.)

            A topic that requires more thought than one brief post.

* * *

            Relatedly, sort of.

            There are physicists who maintain that a determinist view of the world—hard or soft—is untenable in light of quantum physics, where matter is not matter and nothing can be measured without affecting its state.  It's not clear to me why that uncertainty about the subatomic level has anything to do with the atomic level at which we live.  It may be impossible to measure an electron and it is true that all matter is largely space between the components of the atoms, but nonetheless the atoms behave in predictable ways.  If you combine two atoms of hydrogen and one atom of oxygen, you will get a molecule of water.  Chemistry works because it's predictable.  So the monkey wrench the physicists want to throw into the machinery of life doesn't seem to me to be very heavy (or persuasive).

            Maybe the physical scientists who read this will tell me I'm full of baloney.

* * *

            A question posed in human society for a long time, and one that bears directly on my diatribe against libertarian economic policy, is this one:  "If you're so smart, why aren't you rich?"  Some very clever people at the University of Catania in Italy have provided an answer through research that seems well done—and that strikes me on its face as logical and likely.  You may have seen reports about this research; their answer is "it's just plain luck."

            In general, the distribution of wealth follows what is known as a power law:  20% of the people have 80% of the wealth.  (It may be that fewer than 20% have that much; I haven't seen the exact numbers.)  That power rule is true for many social phenomenon (80% of medical costs are from 20% of the patients, etc.).  In many or most cases, the 80/20 rule doesn't cause much controversy, but when it comes to the distribution of wealth, it does.  One reason is the dissimilarity in the distribution of wealth and talent.

The conventional answer [explaining the unequal distribution of wealth] is that we live in a meritocracy in which people are rewarded for their talent, intelligence, effort, and so on.  Over time, many people think, this translates into the wealth distribution that we observe, although a healthy dose of luck can play a role.

But there is a problem with this idea:  while wealth distribution follows a power law, the distribution of human skills generally follows a normal distribution that is symmetric about an average value.  For example, intelligence, as measured by IQ tests, follows this pattern.  Average IQ is 100, but nobody has an IQ of 1,000 or 10,000.  The same is true of effort, as measured by hours worked.  Some people work more hours than average and some work less, but nobody works a billion times more hours than anybody else.  [Similarly for height and weight:  none of us are as tall as a multi-story building nor as short as a soup can.]

And yet when it comes to the rewards for this work, some people do have billions of times more wealth than other people.  What's more, numerous studies have shown that the wealthiest people are generally not the most talented by other measures.

            So, the folks at Catania asked, what determines how people become rich?  They ran multiple simulations using a quite sophisticated "computer model of human talent and the way people use it to exploit opportunities in life."  They gave people various levels of talent and intelligence and other human characteristics, as they are distributed in life.  Plotting the working lifetimes of 40 years, with random events (positive and negative) distributed in the lives, they looked at what happened. 

            What they found was that the 80/20 rule held, but the 20% who held 80% of the wealth were not the most talented "(although they must have a certain level of talent).  They are the luckiest."  They have to have some talent, in order to take advantage of events to grow wealthier, but it isn't the smartest that rose to the top in terms of wealth.  Conversely, those near the bottom of the wealth scale were also the unluckiest.

            As far as I'm concerned, this finding puts paid the idea that you can always work your way out of poverty.  Sure you can, if you have a little luck.  This research alone suggests the importance of the social safety net:  there are plenty of people who are in the economic predicament they are through no fault of their own.  Also conversely, there are plenty of people who are far better off than their merits suggest they would be without being lucky. 

            Luck starts with choosing one's parents wisely.  Krystin and Elliott, from an economic standpoint, were not lucky when they had Pat and me as parents rather than Bill and Melinda Gates.  (That statement is not a comment on whether or not the Gates are good parents; I have no idea.)

            The Catania researchers ran a simulation (albeit what appears to be a pretty good one).  The next step is to do some real-life measuring.  I wonder how many of the top 1% would consent to an in-depth analysis of how they came to have their wealth.  I'm pretty sure quite a few in the bottom 10-20% would agree to participate in the study.
           
* * *

            And then there is willpower (which can presumably get you from being poor to being rich and powerful).

            There was an interesting article by an assistant professor of clinical psychiatry at Columbia University, Carl Eric Fisher, who works in law, ethics, and psychiatry, who essentially trashes the entire concept of "willpower."  It was a long article; the gist of it is that "willpower" is a leftover from early Christianity (willpower was a way to reconcile sin with divine omnipotence) and Victorian England.  The idea of "self control" or delayed gratification permeates western culture, as does the idea that there's a limit to how much self control one has (that is, you can use it up, run out of it, and then you have problems).  He points out that while the idea that self control is in limited supply in any one human, one supported by years of research in psychology, more careful recent research has largely consigned the proposition to the garbage heap.

            One implication of the idea of "willpower" or self control is that if you don't exercise it, you deserve to be poor, or a drunk, or whatever, and are worthy of contempt.  The concept has moralistic overtones with a vengeance.  Over the course of the 20th Century, Freud recast self control or willpower as the superego, then B. F. Skinner killed it with behaviorism, charging "that there is no internally based freedom to control behavior."  Some experimental research in psychology with children who had delayed their own gratification led to revived interest in the concept of self control, defined by the American Psychological Association as "the ability to resist short-term temptations in order to meet long-term goals."  As in the past, largely Christian perception, it is "usually portrayed as a discrete, limited resource, one that can be used up like a literal store of energy."  Once again, however, further careful review of the existing research basically concluded that the idea of "self control" isn't defensible.

            Professor Fisher recounts the several lines of research into aspects of willpower over the last 20-30 years and concludes that the term has no good definition and little meaning, so it should be discarded or "allowed to continue as an imprecise term, standing in for an inconsistent hodgepodge of various mental functions."  The concept "may simply be a pre-scientific idea—one that was born from social attitudes and philosophical speculation rather than research. . . .  The term has persisted into modern psychology because it has a strong intuitive hold on our imagination:  Seeing willpower as a muscle-like force does seem to match up with some limited examples, such as resisting cravings, and the analogy is reinforced by social expectations stretching back to Victorian moralizing."

The effect of the term, used so broadly, is "pernicious . . . distracting us from more accurate ways of understanding human psychology and even detracting from our efforts toward meaningful self-control."  The social policy implications of the concept are significant, he argued. 

Notions of willpower are easily stigmatizing:  It becomes OK to dismantle social safety nets if poverty is a problem of financial discipline, or if health is one of personal discipline.  An extreme example is the punitive approach of our endless drug war, which dismisses substance use problems as primarily the result of individual choices.

            As someone largely a determinist when it comes to human behavior (although, as I wrote, not happy about that conclusion), dropping the idea of "will power" or "self control" makes good sense.  The more logical explanation of destructive behavior is that genetics plus environment led to it, and to assume someone can counteract those forces is not realistic (nor supported by evidence).

* * *

            A friend of mine, a biologist who taught at the University for many years, wrote to me about sexual harassment.  I reproduce her message with her permission.

I am frustrated that there seems to be a serious blurring of the lines between flirting, sexual harassment, and sexual assault.  They are on such different scales and such different intentions.  We are biological organisms with all the reproductive impulses that evolution has selected for.  (Those with the strongest impulses had the most offspring so the genes that code for those impulses are in the majority.)  And these are STRONG impulses. 

The purpose of life is to reproduce. The attractions we may have for those around us, the flirting that is a "testing of the waters" for reproductive activity—that is an expected part of our biology.  We see it in all animals.   And the teasing and the joking has been accepted as part of our culture/society.  The line that is stepped over is when the recipient of the flirting/teasing/joking says "stop" and the behavior continues or escalates.

(Sexual assault is so far over the line it is in the next universe!  But, unfortunately, there is a biological basis for sexual assault as well.  Back to that damn reproductive success equation.)

I think we are now seeing a "stop with the teasing/joking"  coming from women . . . but I think it has be a universal "stop" so the baiting with dress and behavior should also stop.  Maybe then we can focus on appropriate behaviors in the workplace, on the street, everywhere.

My god, I sound like a prude when I say that. . . .  Sex and gender, in all its rainbow colors and permutations, is an amazing part of biology and we should celebrate and enjoy this great part of being human (being animal, being alive).  With a very important commitment to honor and accept that each individual gets to set their own personal limits.

Your statement that you haven't seen sexual harassment at the U (although you know it is there):  I agree.  I have not seen it either.  However, I have seen people being inconsiderate jerks but they have been equal opportunity inconsiderate jerks—being horrible to both women and men.  I know I have been lucky to not have experienced sexual harassment but I do think it is partly a function of the quality of men and women with whom I have had the amazing luck to work.

            For those in Minnesota and Wisconsin, enjoy the snow!  (Ugh.)

Gary
           

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