Sunday, October 6, 2019

#66 10-6-19 activities, ships, genes/environment/luck, psychiatry, secession, bankers, talking in the past, our late cat




Good morning.

            People ask what I do in retirement.  Two activities that have consumed a lot of my time come to an end this month:  helping plan our 50-year high school class reunion and the book of Krystin's writing.

            The reunion, by all accounts I've heard, was a resounding success.  We who planned it were pleased.

The book will soon be available on Amazon dot com, Diabetes Ignored: Krystin's Life.  (It was supposed to be now, but somehow the margins in the final proof got messed up, so we have to re-do it.)  I am *not* suggesting that anyone buy it.  For a paperback, it's expensive—$35—in part because there are many photos in it and in part because it's long (my editor and I—mostly my editor—trimmed ~2400 pages down to ~800).  I make very little money on it and it would require far more sales than I expect for me to break even on the cost of preparing it.  But making money was never the objective.  Krystin always wanted to be published, and while this book is hardly what she had in mind, it achieves her goal posthumously.  It has occurred to me recently that of all the members of my family, back for as many generations as I know, Krystin will have by far the most well-documented life.  She'd be pleased, I'm sure, that something was published that conveys the lessons she wished others to learn; whether this book is what she would have wanted we will never know.

            So now it's time to get on to the next chapter in retirement.  At this moment I have no idea what it will bring, other than teaching a few people to play bridge and playing the game myself from time to time.  But that is *not* going to be my major activity in life.  Unfortunately, one minor but recurring activity is "downsizing," which mostly consists of putting things in xerox boxes and labeling them "Items for Elliott." 

* * *

A response to my last message:  "On the topic of valetudinary conversations, a friend of mine recently noted that encounters with friends of like age normally begin with the 'organ recital,' i.e., which organs are still working and which not."

* * *

            I forgot to mention a topic of conversation that arose during our trip to Door County.  We somehow got on the topic of sunken ships and were wondering how many such ships there are in Lake Superior.  I couldn't find an estimate for Lake Superior alone, but the estimates of the number of ships lying on the bottom of one of the five Great Lakes range from 6,000 to >25,000.  "The Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum approximates 6,000 ships and 30,000 lives lost, while historian and mariner Mark Thompson has estimated that the total number of wrecks is likely more than 25,000."  Thompson wrote a book on the subject titled Graveyard of the Lakes.

            Now contemplate the number of sunken ships in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.  World Wars I and II contributed a few.  So, I imagine, did European exploration of North and South America.

* * *

            Apropos of my grousing about restaurant food portions being much too large, this BBC headline was posted on September 10:  "Restaurants urged to serve us less food."

* * *

            I was struck by a few paragraphs in a short piece written by Michael Shermer titled "Genes, Environment, and Luck: What We Can and Cannot Control."

Let’s begin with a question: Why do some people succeed in life while others fail? Is it because they are naturally smarter and harder working, or is it because they were raised to be ambitious and disciplined, or could it be that they were simply lucky along the way and got all the good breaks? For centuries, philosophers, theologians, scholars, and ordinary people have speculated on these and related questions, for example, why there are class differences between people, why some people seem to have more power, wealth, and privilege than others, and what’s the best way to structure political and economic systems in order to create a fair and just society in the teeth of such obvious inequalities of natural ability, drive, and chance.

As with so many issues today, these are not ideological-free questions. Conservatives, for example, tend to embrace a Just World Theory of how lives turn out: If you are rich and successful, it is because you are hard working, intelligent, creative, risk-taking, and justly rewarded with happiness for your discipline and self-control; if you are poor, it is because you are lazy, ignorant, unimaginative, risk-averse and duly punished with unhappiness for your lack of will power and self-persuasion. In other words, for conservatives, the world is already just, so any injustices are the result of the natural order of things, which should be left well alone. People get what they deserve, so a just society is one in which there are equal opportunities for natural inequalities to form, so let the chips fall where they may.

By contrast, liberals tend to hold an Unjust World Theory of how lives turn out: If you are successful, it is because you were fortunate to be born in a stable family that inculcated into you the virtues that produce behaviors that translate into hard work, creativity, and risk-taking, and you were nourished along the way by people who enabled your success, or at forks in the career road were nudged down the right path by well-connected friends or family; for those people who did not have the good fortune to have been born into wealth, stable families, nurturing communities, and safe environments, we have a moral obligation to alter society in a manner to level the playing field and to allow all members of our community or society to flourish to the best of their natural talents.

These differences in how conservatives and liberals see the world very much determines their attitudes toward social policies that effects how lives turn out for the citizens of a society . . . and these differences account for the different positions people hold on a number of seemingly unrelated social issues, such as immigration, health care, welfare, taxes, criminal justice reform, police, and war.

            I don't agree with Schermer's label of a liberal point of view; a more accurate one, in my opinion, would be along the lines of "Lucky Parents World Theory."  If you are lucky enough to have parents with sufficient income, live in the right place, go to good schools, and inherit at least modest smarts, you'll likely do well in the world.  If you aren't, the odds are stacked against you.  I don't need to elaborate on Schermer's dichotomy, other than to add that I think in general he's correct, but I will make this claim:  Social science research for the last 50+ years seems to me to come down squarely on the side of his "Unjust World Theory."  The "Just World Theory" is ideological, not data-driven.  The research suggests a number of public policies that those with the "Just World" view find anathema.

            In that same vein, I saw a short excerpt from Robert Bellah's "The Protestant Structure of American Culture" (2002).  "In it . . . , Bellah worries that the cultural legacy of Protestantism is an individualism that destroys the idea of the common good and leaves nothing but the thought that 'what I have is mine, and it's mine because I deserve it, and I have a right to it.'"  So one might say that the "Just World Theory" is also divinely ordained.  Or some would perhaps argue.

* * *

            This research confirms my long-standing suspicion, a suspicion I've held since I was a grad student in psychology several decades ago.  A group of researchers at the University of Liverpool did a careful study of "five key chapters of the latest edition of the widely used Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM), on 'schizophrenia', 'bipolar disorder', 'depressive disorders', 'anxiety disorders' and 'trauma-related disorders'."  Their conclusions were blunt:

Psychiatric diagnoses all use different decision-making rules
There is a huge amount of overlap in symptoms between diagnoses
Almost all diagnoses mask the role of trauma and adverse events
Diagnoses tell us little about the individual patient and what treatment they need
The authors conclude that diagnostic labelling represents 'a disingenuous categorical system'.

Or, in different words, "Although diagnostic labels create the illusion of an explanation they are scientifically meaningless and can create stigma and prejudice. I hope these findings will encourage mental health professionals to think beyond diagnoses and consider other explanations of mental distress, such as trauma and other adverse life experiences."  And, "This study provides yet more evidence that the biomedical diagnostic approach in psychiatry is not fit for purpose. Diagnoses frequently and uncritically reported as 'real illnesses' are in fact made on the basis of internally inconsistent, confused and contradictory patterns of largely arbitrary criteria."

            I'm not railing against seeing a psychotherapist for whatever travails you face in life.  I believe they help.  I've known many people (including me) who have been aided by such professionals.  The confusion and danger lies in analogizing psychiatric difficulties with measles and mumps. 

* * *

            In what might seem the theater of the absurd, except I think it's not, I sent a short note to the leadership of Securian Financial Group (which is where my U of M retirement funds reside).  I asked if they were taking into account the possibility that if Mr. Trump wins re-election, California (or perhaps the entire west coast) moves to secede.  I suggested that New York might follow suit, and that the threat to Securian (and a large number of other business entities) was significant.  The reply message was that in their business planning, they try constantly to monitor situations that affect Securian.  Yeah, sure, but I bet that possibility wasn't part of their projections.  Probably still isn't, despite my message.  But I believe I am correct to suggest that it is measurably larger than a non-zero probability.

* * *

            Based only on personal experience, after many years I have come to the conclusion that bankers are generally not the brightest bulbs in the chandelier.  Apologies to anyone whose a banker who reads this; maybe you're an exception.  I discussed this point with my friend Kevin, who later sent me this message.

The following quote is from a book review of The Big Short from the NYT -

But it took Wall Street chief executives, a bunch of feckless dolts, to light the bonfire. The Merrill Lynch C.E.O. Stanley O'Neal, taking a break from his frequent golf games, was completely surprised in the summer of 2007 when he learned Merrill was stuck with $48 billion of collateralized debt obligations it couldn't sell. Chuck Prince, the chief executive of Citigroup, wrote a shareholder letter in early 2007 in which "he devoted precisely two sentences to credit markets, which, he forecast, without elaboration, would most likely suffer 'moderate deterioration' in 2007." Farce turned into tragedy in the summer and fall of 2008 when the chief executives were forced to band together to save themselves, one another and the system.

Feckless dolts indeed.  And from what I read in the news lately, not much has changed.

* * *

A question that has occurred to me from time to time was also the title of a recent little piece that I read:  "How Far Back in Time Could a Modern English Speaker Go and Still Communicate Effectively?" by Daven Hiskey.

            To go as far back as possible, you of course have to go to England.  Hiskey points out that even today, "there are a shocking number of dialects of English in England alone despite being a relatively small area. Some of these dialects are even difficult for a general modern English speaker to understand fully if the people that are speaking them aren't interested in modifying their speech so you can understand them."  The situation doesn't improve if you go back in time.  If, however, you interact only with the upper classes, you could go back a considerable way.

            English, as many know, is a random accumulation of influences so there's almost no logic to it.  There is Old English, from the 8th and 9th centuries.  There is the impact of the Viking invasions during that time as well, adding Old Norse.  Then the Norman invaded, under William the Conqueror, in 1066, bringing Norman French as the court language; that French gradually spread and added many words to what became modern English.

            Hisken provides this example from the 9th century:

Brytene igland is ehta hund mila lang and twa hund mila brad, and her synd on þam iglande fif geþeodu, Ænglisc, Brytwylsc, Scottysc, Pihttisc and Boclæden.

In modern English, this translates to:

The island Britain is 800 miles long, and 200 miles broad. And there are in the island five nations; English, Welsh, Scottish, Pictish, and Latin.

The language of the Normans trickled down to the masses and vice-versa, adding a whole host of words to English, which starts to give us more of the vocabulary we are used to today. This and some other changes to the language that occurred at this time all combined bring us to Middle English, which spanned around the 12th through the 15th centuries, the latter of which is also generally considered to be when the so-called "medieval times" ended.

            The 14th century is when Chaucer was writing.  I have tried to read him in the original and get nowhere.  However, it would have been possible to communicate on some level, but Hisken reports that language before the "Great Vowel Shift," which took place "primarily from around the mid-14th century through the 16th century or so. In a nutshell, this is where the pronunciation of various vowels in English changed considerably."  So before that great shift, even though the words would have borne some similarity to modern English, pronunciation would have been quite different, so a conversation would have been difficult.

            After the Great Vowel Shift comes Shakespeare and the King James Bible, which most educated people can understand.  Personally, I find the KJV of the bible easier than Shakespeare unless I'm reading the latter.  So, especially if you went to London and mingled with the well-to-do and elite, you'd be able to carry on a conversation beginning in the middle of the 16th century or after.

            Take your time machine back to the late 1500s and you're OK; much earlier than that and you'd be confronted with a largely foreign tongue.

* * *

            As my Facebook friends know, our beloved Bela died overnight.  Of our three cats—of all the cats I've owned—Bela had the liveliest personality and even had a sense of humor.  He did not eat for 10 days, although he occasionally sipped water, and, no surprise, slowly lost energy.  I took him to the vet three times over that 10 days, but to no avail; none of the meds had any effect on his unwillingness to eat.  The appetite stimulants didn't stimulate.  The only saving grace was that we were able to give him painkillers, so whatever it was that ailed him at least didn't cause him great pain.  We were out for the evening last night; when we got home, Bela was barely responsive to my attention.  So I lay with him on a sofa until 3:00 a.m., at which point he was still breathing but unresponsive.  I went to bed; when we awoke this morning, he was dead, and in exactly the position I had left him.  So we lost a good little buddy.  He's now safely buried deeply in the back yard.

            With warm regards—

            Gary



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