Monday, June 4, 2018

#45 writing, clocks, the next 130 years





Good morning.

            I haven't quit writing these occasional messages, but even when I was composing a single long year-end letter, making entries from time to time during the year, I found that I wrote very little during the late spring and summer.  Part of the reason is because I spend time outside puttering with the gardens; part of it, inexplicably, just seems to be seasonal.

            This year there's an additional reason I've stepped away from them:  I've begun pulling together Krystin's writing legacy.  It's a tedious task in some ways; in order to capture her—especially her sense of humor—I have to copy Facebook posts and paste them into an MS Word document.  I have to do the same with her lengthy blog entries—truly, like daughter, like father.  There are also her diaries, which Kathy is reading through first (but in which there is really nothing I shouldn't see or didn't already know about).  The diaries have to be transcribed because they're all hand-written.  And then there are 10 years' of emails that she and I exchanged.  I'm in the midst of all of that effort, which doesn't leave me much (intellectual) energy or time to write much of my own.

            I'm coming to know Krystin better than I did when she was alive.  I read most of her blog entries and her Facebook posts when she wrote them, but not closely.  The diaries, of course, I had never seen.  As I read more carefully what she wrote, I am discovering depths that I did not know were there.  She paid more attention to politics than I had guessed and I realize more fully that she was quite funny at times—the more impressive because she exhibited that humor in spite of often daunting pain and depression because of her medical circumstances.  As with many Millennials, she paid attention to the music and culture of her generation—and as far as I can tell, she had a decent eye for quality and dismissing the dreck.

            Whether or not I can keep at this for a prolonged period remains to be seen.  On the one hand, reading all of these entries and seeing the pictures (Krystin liked to include pictures in her blogs and her Facebook entries) puts me back in touch with her.  On the other, they remind me how much I miss her and wish I could have her back.  So I plod along, stopping from time to time.  What I will do once I have finished the tedious work is something I haven't yet figured out.  I'm hoping for inspiration.

* * *

            One minor piece of international news that I found amusing.  From the Telegraph (UK):  "Some U.K. schools are removing them from exam halls after discovering teenagers have a hard time reading traditional clock faces."  It seems that kids are so used to seeing time represented digitally (thus numerically) that they can't figure out the time from clocks that have minute and hour hands.  So the traditional clocks are being replaced with digital ones.

            I suppose that in the grand scheme of things, how you get your time isn't that important.

* * *

            Several friends responded to my request for speculation about changes 1880-2010 compared to possible changes 2010-2140.  Italics are excerpts from their responses.
           

I am not either a researcher nor scientific person. With that in mind my expectation is that our days will be very different in the next century. By how much?  A bunch! And that’s my final answer.  I am quite sure this friend is correct.

Another friend wrote a longer and thoughtful response.  She reminded me that others have raised the question about scale and magnitude; she noted that one author, writing about happiness, did so.  When I rate my happiness on a scale of 1 to 10, how do we know if your 1 to 10 is the same?  Maybe my 10 is 1/10 of yours or 100X yours.  How would we every know?  She went on to make a few observations.

A flippant response:  I'm sure my daily life in 2140 will be WAAAAAYYYYY different than my life in 2010 since in 2140, I'll be dead.  Heh heh.

My grandmother was born in 1890 and died in 1981.  Shortly before she died, I was talking to her about the changes that occurred in her lifetime and her main response was "how lucky am I?"  She mentioned electricity, cars, airplanes, but also antibiotics, medical care improvements, household items like washing machines and dryers, telephones.  She felt like she was the luckiest person to have lived through so many changes.

Apocalyptic view:  climate change has made its mark.  Many of our familiar plants and animals are gone.  Droughts, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes have all gotten worse.  We finally have to live with what we have done to this planet.

"It's a wonderful world" view:  climate change has made its mark.  Many of our familiar plants and animals are gone.  Droughts, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes have all gotten worse. But we have finally stopped the slide, are working hard to conserve what is still left, and have learned humility.

Another friend observed that those who think about this aren't of one mind (no surprise).

I find it interesting how different the views of some commentators currently are.  On the one hand, there are those who are arguing that increases in productivity have stalled because technology is now delivering incremental improvements (e.g. electric cars, induction hobs, etc.), and those who say that we are in the midst of a technological revolution as profound as the initial industrial revolution.  Both cannot be right.

            One write reframed my question slightly—and then chickened out of speculating!

Perhaps it is easier to frame the question based on the life experiences of a current 100 yr old living in the US.  Such a person would have been born in 1918. For many born in that year, life would have been very similar to what you have described (e.g., no indoor plumbing, no electricity, no cars, very little food (especially starting in 1929), many incurable diseases, significant number of childhood deaths, manual labor for many, long work hours, terrible pay and work conditions, no social security or medicare, poor general medical care, etc.).  Over their lifetime the 1918ers have seen major advances in all the above as well as plane flight, space travel, computers, internet and significantly longer life spans.  One person born in 1920 who died last year at the outstanding age of 97 told me two years ago that he felt there had never been a hundred year period of more accelerated change in all of human history.  Although I am not a historian, my limited knowledge suggests he is correct.

With that as background, perhaps one can ask the question in terms of someone born in 2018 and what changes will occur in the next hundred years during their lifetime.  Will the trajectory of change be even steeper than the previous 100 years?  Alas I do not have a crystal ball and moreover prognostication has never been my strong suit as I have never been good at any predictions.

One friend made a point I never would have thought of.

I'd like to add another facet to the question.  Because of all the changes, the ways we organize ourselves socially and, relatedly, the ways we think about who we are also change (in my view).  For example, smart phones are fabulous.  When I and many other parents got one, we stopped asking each other for information about opportunities for our kids and started consulting our smartphones.  The "culture" of pick-ups changed drastically. Will our future changes bring us "closer" together or further apart?  With whom?  How will that be determined?  When my teenager refers to a friend, I have to ask where that friend lives -- local, national, or somewhere else in the world.  Because of technology, he has what he calls "friends" around the world. What are the implications of those types of changes?

I wrote back that I suspected—hoped!—that the measurement of significance of change in one aspect of life would be -0-.  If in 100 years there is less or little face-to-face human interaction (dining together, cocktails together, walking and talking together, and so on), then it will be a world I won't care to live in.  Will virtual reality constitute our interactions?

            And then a friend got to the heart of the question!  First, he surmised that our everyday lives will be more different than our current lives as compared to your great-grandparents' lives.  My rationale is that technology changes more as time goes on.  Life in 2140 will be at a scale of 85 compared to 20 in 1885 and 50 in 2018.  So, slightly greater changes coming (35) than in the previous 130 years (30). 

            One change, should it come about, would dramatically our lives:  teleportation ("beam me up, Scotty").  Elliott and I have talked about whether that will ever be possible; we doubt it.  Achieving it would mean we had developed technology that could disassemble us and then re-assemble us, putting every single atom back in the same place.  If a few are misplaced, such as in the brain or the spinal column, you could lose part of your memory, your personality could change, you could be paraplegic, and so on.  A biologist friend told me that "you might be correct that the central nervous system is too difficult to deconstruct and reconstruct.  However I do not believe it is beyond the realm of possibility particularly since computers might be able to do something similar after another 100 or so years of improvements."  If it were to be developed, suddenly planes, trains, and automobiles would be obsolete.  (Presumably if you were moving from one residence to another, you could teleport your sofas and pots and pans as well as yourself.)

* * *

            People often ask me what I'm doing in retirement.  One thing, I tell them, is that I'm having many more social lunches than I ever did before.  Last week I had two; this week I have four; I have three each of the next two weeks.  I enjoy that part of life thoroughly.

            With warm regards—

            Gary

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