Thursday, April 16, 2020

#74 more kudos to mentors, opera, Aztecs & happiness, concrete, coronavirus (sigh)




Good morning.

            In response to my stories about the men and women who've had a significant influence on my life, one faculty friend wrote back to tell me a marvelous story about a teaching moment.  A number of years ago he was teaching a weekly evening class of about 150 students. At one point during the semester:

            "I told the students to put down their pens, I wanted to ask them a question. 

"The room got very quiet and I said, 'There is someone in your past life who was especially important in getting you here tonight and shaping you to be the person you are today. Think for a moment and decide who what person is–a parent, a coach, a former teacher, relative, a minister, priest or rabbi, a neighbor, etc. You know whom I am talking about. Now write that person's name in your notebook, draw a circle around the name, and when you get home tonight or sometime tomorrow, write that person a note and tell that person what their guidance and support or example has meant to you.'

"At that point I saw them pick up their pens and write.

"The next week I said to the class, 'Remember what I suggested last week that you do? I hope you followed through.'  I saw many heads nodding.

"I went on to say that they had no idea what receiving such a note means to people who receive them. And I suggested that they make it a habit in the future."

What I missed in what I wrote about Frank Sorauf was his sense of style and grace. That, too, is something I remember.  He could be harsh, in private conversations, about people who he thought were screw-ups, but I also remember that he carried himself off with a sense of elegance and poise that few of the rest of us achieve. One of Frank's friends wrote back to me that, "yes, actually that sense of elegance and poise is the characteristic of Frank that I always thought of as central to him."

I also should have commented a little more on Bob Stein. He was a great guy to work for, and I didn't *always* leave our conferences feeling overwhelmed. Every once in awhile I'd come up with a good idea, one he hadn't thought of, for which he'd commend me (maybe after he recovered from surprise 😊). Thus salvaging a small part of my ego. He's also been good counsel for me off and on in the 43 years since we met.

* * *

            Many of those who read murder mysteries will know of Donna Leon. An American, she's lived in Venice for decades, and her wonderful mysteries are set in Venice. I happened to read an interview with her that roved over a number of subjects. It turns out that she's an opera lover, and she provided a marvelous description of opera:

I love the shameless excess of opera. Music, singing, conflict, more singing, trios, quartets, death all over the place, undying love, magic spells, thunder from the left, dragons, and then more singing. I've got so many favorite performances it would take me too long to list them: Joyce DiDonato singing Agrippina, Marijana Mijanovic singing Giulio Cesare, Ann Hallenberg singing Ariodante.

Quite coincidentally, we saw Joyce DiDonato sing Agrippina (via Met Opera simulcast, so not in person) just before the coronavirus roof fell on us.

* * *

            Sebastian Purcell, an assistant professor of philosophy at the State University of New York-Cortland, related in a recent article that

In the spring semester of the school year, I teach a class called 'Happiness'. It's always packed with students because, like most people, they want to learn the secret to feeling fulfilled.

'How many of you want to be happy in life?' I ask. Everyone raises a hand. Always. 'How many of you are planning to have children?' Almost everyone raises their hand again.

Then I lay out the evidence that having kids makes most people more miserable, and that their sense of wellbeing returns to its former levels only after the last child has left the house. 'How many of you still want children?' I say. Maybe it's just obstinacy, but the same people who wanted to be happy still put their hands up.

            With that, Purcell goes on to discuss the concept of happiness in life and how the Aztecs thought about it. He asserts that what the Aztecs knew well was that "You should stop searching for happiness, because that's not really what you want. We don't plan our lives around elevated emotional states. What we want are worthwhile lives, and if we have to make sacrifices for that, then so much the worse for 'happiness'."
           
            Purcell notes that western philosophy and thought of any kind has paid scant attention to the Aztecs. In fact, he says, they had a "philosophically rich culture" that included philosophers. Moreover, there is a great deal of their thought that was recorded by the Christian clergy who came with the Spanish.

            The Aztecs shared with the ancient Greek philosophers (so Purcell tells me; I didn't know that) an interest

in how to lead a good life. . . . The Aztecs had a saying: 'The earth is slippery, slick,' which was as common to them as a contemporary aphorism such as 'Don't put all your eggs in one basket' is to us. What they meant is that the Earth is a place where humans are prone to error, where our plans are likely to fail, and friendships are often betrayed. Good things only come mingled with something undesired. 'The Earth is not a good place. It is not a place of joy, a place of contentment,' a mother advises her daughter, in the record of a conversation that has survived to this day. 'It is rather said that it is a place of joy-fatigue, of joy-pain.'

            The answer of  "how to lead a good life is that we should strive to lead a rooted, or worthwhile life. The word the Aztecs used is neltiliztli. It literally means 'rootedness', but also 'truth' and 'goodness' more broadly." There are several aspects to achieving that kind of life that I'm not going to delve into, but in summary, it

amounted to a kind of careful dance, one that took account of the treacherous terrain of the slippery earth, and in which pleasure was little more than an incidental feature. This vision stands in sharp relief to the Greeks' idea of happiness, where reason and pleasure are intrinsic to the best performance of our life's act on the world's stage. Aztec philosophy encourages us to question this received 'Western' wisdom about the good life – and to seriously consider the sobering notion that doing something worthwhile is more important than enjoying it.

The worthwhile life versus the happy life. It strikes me that the two are not incompatible. I think this is right: "The Earth is not a good place. It is not a place of joy, a place of contentment. . . . It is rather said that it is a place of joy-fatigue, of joy-pain." However, as with much in life, it depends on where you are. I suspect that there may be more fatigue and pain in some of the huge slums in cities around the world than there is in the beach homes of Long Island or Lake Minnetonka. I suspect that many of my faculty friends combine both happiness and a sense of a worthwhile life; I am less sure that is true for people who, for example, work on assembly lines or have clerking positions at big box stores—at least in terms of job/career. But I suppose most everyone can, in some aspect of their life, find something they believe worthwhile.

Leading a worthwhile life rather than purely a happy life would surely make the world a better place, if "worthwhile" means somehow making a positive contribution to the world (as opposed to activities such as pushing opioids, engaging in slavery, keeping people in punishing working conditions, polluting air and water, corporate fraud, spousal and child abuse, research fraud, and so on and on).

It strikes me that the Aztec philosophy at least overlaps significantly with the precepts of the major religions of the world now practiced. I can't recall that "happiness" is a central doctrine in any of the Abrahamic religions, whereas "being good" and "doing good" are, in some fashion.

* * *

            The IEEE Spectrum is not a usual source of my reading.  ["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers . . . composed of engineers, scientists, and allied professionals [such as] computer scientists, software developers, information technology professionals, physicists, medical doctors . . . in addition to IEEE's electrical and electronics engineering core." The Spectrum is the association's professional journal.]  But I recently ran across an article about concrete in the journal (don't ask me; I have no idea how I stumbled on it. Maybe "The Browser"). 

            I finally learned that concrete consists of only about 7-15% cement; the rest is water (roughly 20%) and sand and gravel (60-75%). In my ignorance, I have sometimes used the two terms interchangeably. About the only thing I knew for sure is that the Pantheon in Rome is the largest structure made of unreinforced concrete.

            The Romans were the first to develop and use concrete; their formula is not the one used today. The modern process began in England in the 1820s; "lime, silica, and alumina are the dominant constituents of modern cement; adding water, sand and gravel produces a slurry that hardens into concrete as it cures." Concrete extremely strong under compression but can be easily torn apart unless it's reinforced, a process that began in the 1860s and has continued apace.

From 1900 to 1928, the U.S. consumption of cement . . . rose tenfold, to 30 million metric tons. The postwar economic expansion, including the construction of the Interstate Highway System, raised consumption to a peak of about 128 million tons by 2005; recent rates are around 100 million tons a year. China became the world's largest producer in 1985, and its output of cement—above 2.3 billion metric tons in 2018—now accounts for nearly 60 percent of the global total. In 2017 and 2018 China made slightly more cement (about 4.7 billion tons) than the United States had made throughout the entire 20th century.

            There's a downside to all of this concrete. Yes, it's made possible the world's highways, bridges, dams, runways, parking lots, and thousands of other structures (including, I was reminded, the Sydney Opera House). But except for the Pantheon, it deteriorates. Concrete is subject to "acid deposition, vibration, structural overloading, and salt-induced corrosion of the reinforcing steel. As a result, the concretization of the world has produced tens of billions of tons of material that will soon have to be replaced, destroyed, or simply abandoned." I don't know that I would have used the word "soon" in that sentence, unless the author was thinking about the long run of history.

            The second problem with concrete is that producing it accounts for roughly 5% of fossil fuel emissions. "The industry burns low-quality coal and petroleum coke, producing roughly a ton of carbon dioxide per ton of cement." There are alternative production techniques but they are not widely used and apparently won't be anytime soon. I imagine they're also more expensive.

            I'm never going to be able to walk down the sidewalk again without thinking of the cost of producing and replacing it. It would certainly be an improvement if widespread recycling were possible.

* * *

            I have noticed on several websites, in the news, and in Facebook comments hither and thither, that a number on the political right, Trump-ish sorts and right-wing media sites, are calling for the governors and Trump to open the economy back up sooner than most public health experts appear to believe would be wise. It seems to me that those calling for opening up sooner don't put a very high value on lives. Here are the Minnesota statistics (from MPR) for April 16:

1,809 cases via 40,242 tests
87 deaths
445 cases requiring hospitalization
197 people remain in the hospital; 93 in ICUs
23 percent of cases in congregate living settings
940 patients recovered

Pretty low number for deaths as a percentage of the state population; best in the nation, last I saw. The worst-case projections are 22,000 – 28,000 deaths for Minnesota alone if physical distancing is not maintained and appropriate testing ramped up as quickly as possible.

            My question is how many Minnesota deaths are acceptable to those who want to re-start the economy sooner. 1,000? 5,000? 10,000? All 22,000+? Which people's siblings/parents/children/friends are they willing to sacrifice? The issue of immunity is of signal importance: do you acquire immunity once you've had COVID-19? The evidence thus far seems ambiguous; maybe you do, maybe for a short time, maybe not, maybe it even varies with the individual. If there's little or no immunity, the idea of "herd immunity" is inapplicable and much will have to wait on a vaccine.

            Comparisons with other diseases are irrelevant. In many cases, they are treatable or they don't have a high mortality rate. Or they are less contagious and sequestration of the sick essentially addresses the problem. There isn't a social decision that some people will die: whatever steps can be taken we generally take. Flu shots are available and work to some extent; if someone chooses not to get a flu shot and subsequently dies, that was an individual choice (and even if they spread it before they die, the mortality rate is so low that it won't likely affect anyone else). None of these things are true for COVID-19, and it's so highly contagious that a public policy decision to increase exposure of everyone is an affirmative decision that some must be sacrificed. I don't want to be the one who makes that decision.

            On the other hand. . . . Everyone recognizes the financial devastation the economic shutdown is having on many millions of people. How many will die because of depression (lack of income, mental/social support) or from other afflictions that can't be treated right now? How many lives will be derailed permanently (e.g., colleges and universities are concerned that many may not pursue higher education because of the coronavirus, lost jobs/careers never recovered). The tradeoffs here are horrendous. But, since I don't want my son or wife or brother or friends to die from the disease, I come down on the side of saving lives over saving the economy. But it's not a comfortable conclusion.


--Gary

Monday, April 13, 2020

#73 Age 47.2, media, contingent self worth, copper & bugs, a little coronavirus



Good morning.

            No coronavirus here, just research tidbits from all over the place. (Well, except at the end, which I added after that initial promise of "no coronavirus.")

            Misery in life peaks at 47. David Blanchflower, professor of labor economics at Dartmouth University, CBE, former member of a Bank of England policy committee, recently published a 67-page highly technical National Bureau of Economic Research paper titled "Is Happiness U-shaped Everywhere? Age and Subjective Well-being in 132 Countries." It seems that happiness, over the lifespan, is a U-shaped curve: we're happier when we're young, happiness drops off as we head into middle age, and then we get happy again later in life. In developed countries, the "worst" or most unhappy age is 47.2 years; in developing countries, it's age 48.2. Whether or not there's a "happiness curve" has been contested terrain among those who've studied it, but Blanchflower declares, "The happiness curve is everywhere. . . . No ifs, no buts, well-being is U-shaped in age." (I suspect he should have written the last sentence as "perception of well-being" or maybe even "happiness." The research didn't look at "well-being" per se.

            One interesting finding buried in the study is a citation from another study.

Graham and Pozuelo (2017) also found marked differences for the married and unmarried . . . for the US, in sharp contrast to Europe. They found that there were U-shapes for both groups in Europe and argued that there is a major difference in the levels of happiness across married and unmarried cohorts in the US, with those of the married significantly
higher than those of the unmarried. In addition, they found that "the unmarried experience a much steeper dip than do the married as beginning in the late 20s and then closing the gap with the married in the late 50s. The married, meanwhile, have a slight upward bump in the U curve in the late 20s to the mid-40s and then a drop again at that point."

The authors note rightly that it is hard to explain why there are such large differences in the happiness of the married versus unmarried in the USA and not in Europe. They go on to argue, which seems right, that "in theory, selection bias could be an issue, as happier people are more likely to marry each other. Yet this is not the whole story and does not explain the differences between these two contexts, which are otherwise very similar in terms of per capita income, education levels, and other traits.". . . One issue is that marriage versus cohabiting is much more the norm in the US than it is in the UK which may impact the happiness of those who are unmarried by middle age.

            Obviously these are averages across a huge population. I've tried to figure out if age 47.2 was the low point in my life. That would have been fall, 1998. I thought 1998 was a reasonably good year! Gary says that, having no recollection whatever of any particular events that year. So I checked: my former wife and I assembled photo albums for every year from 1980 (the year we met) up to 2005. The photos from later 1998 suggest that it was remarkable in its ordinariness.

            Let's say there's a variation (for statistics people, 1 standard deviation) of 3 years either side of 47.2 years, so most people will have their peak misery year somewhere between 44.2 and 50.2 years of age. (I made up 3 years as 1 SD; it's purely for hypothesis.) What's going on in many people's lives at that age?

--          If married (or not) with children, they're likely in high school or college (if the kids go to college). Are high schoolers trying kids? Mine weren't; they're probably all over the place in behavior. If single, are they depressed because they wanted not to be single?
--          In work, if in a career (as opposed to simply a job), people are probably approaching their peak years. If that workload demands excessive time, that could lead to unhappiness—unless you are like many of the people I knew/know, for whom work was great fun, so how can there be too much of it? If in a job that continues to retirement, it may be increasingly unsatisfying. I know nothing about labor psychology, so I am talking through my hat.
--          Perhaps this is a time in life when marriages/relationships fall apart.
--          At a more esoteric level, perhaps that's the age when we all realize we won't be president of the U.S., we won't make a gazillion dollars, and so on—the period when aspirations collide with the realities of one's life. Then, as more time passes, people become comfortable with where they are in life. That, again, is idle speculation.

            Some of us may have never had more or less unhappy years. Frankly, I'm not sure my mid-40s to early 50s were more or less happy than the years that preceded and followed them. As with everyone, I can identify periods when happiness took a hit (e.g., late 1988 to late 1989 was a horrible year: Krystin was diagnosed with diabetes, my great-aunt died, my mother died), but those were event-specific, not a generalized unhappiness associated with age.

            For those who happen to think about it—and are beyond 47.2 years—what's your take about your own life?

* * *

            Friends of Facebook friends (not *my* Facebook friends) often make dismissive remarks about all of the media as propaganda or slanted in some way, with the result that they don't believe anything they read. I read some of those comments lately, and then I read a book review today.

            Perhaps like some of you, I often read book reviews of books I have no intention of reading; today's piece was about a biography of P. T. Barnum. I have too little interest in Barnum to want to read an entire book about him, but Robert Wilson's review was lively and worth my time (as are most of the reviews in the New York Review of Books).  The last two paragraphs of the review:

The most disturbing line of the book comes not from anything Barnum did but from a lesson he learned. The success of General Tom Thumb's act—a precocious young "dwarf," dressed in military attire and paraded about on a carriage pulled by Shetland ponies and attended by a liveried footman—yielded several successors. The first of these was George Washington Morrison Nutt, whom Barnum renamed Commodore Nutt. He debuted twenty years after his predecessor, who was no longer a reliable draw, having grown taller, fatter, and altogether less charming. Still the resemblance between Thumb and Nutt led crowds to question whether the two were the same person. Barnum, always quick to capitalize on his audience's skepticism—"to turn all doubts into hard cash," as he put it—brought the two men together on stage. To his surprise, this only deepened the audience's suspicion. The more he tried to convince customers of their error, he wrote, "the more they winked and looked wise, and said, 'It's pretty well done, but you can't take me in.'" He had trained his audiences in the art of the humbug too well. "It is very amusing," Barnum concludes, to see how easily people "deceive themselves by being too incredulous."

Wilson notes this episode only in passing, but to an American reader in 2020, it barks from the page. The great danger to democracy today comes not from marks slow to spot a humbug but from a public made cynical to the point of believing that everything, and everyone, is a humbug, especially the humorless class of credentialed experts whom Barnum took such joy in ridiculing. In the end, though, it's a distinction without a difference. Too credulous or too incredulous—you're a sucker either way.

            It is perhaps apparent why I linked the Facebook comments and the book review.

            The question I have for those who dismiss all the media (or, I fear, in many cases all the media except Fox News): where is it you expect to learn the "truth" about the world you live in? By osmosis from the atmosphere? As I've repeatedly suggested to many people over the years, what's important is where you get your news. Some sources are largely trustworthy, others are humbug (to put it charitably).  But not everything is humbug.

* * *

            Something that most of probably know:  "Money can't buy love -- or friendship."  Researchers from the State University of New York at Buffalo (a school that has dramatically improved its research capacity and ranking in the last 15-20 years), Harvard, and the University of Western Australia looked at five different studies with over 2,500 subjects to examine the implications of basing assessment of one's own worth on financial success. (The fact that the research team comes from Buffalo, Harvard, and Western Australia speaks to the internationalization of research!)

            Psychologists have identified a state of mind they named "Financial Contingency of Self-Worth." The gist is, obviously, that "when people's self-worth is contingent on money, they view their financial success as being tied to the core of who they are as a person. The degree to which they succeed financially relates to how they feel about themselves -- feeling good when they think they're doing well financially, but feeling worthless if they're feeling financially insecure." That, in turn, "creates pressures that hurt important social connections." When you're driven to reach financial goals, you often sacrifice spending time with family and friends because you work so much—and thus you can become "lonely and disconnected." The authors "emphasize the role of social networks and personal relationships in maintaining good mental health and why people should preserve those connections, even in the face of obstacles or pursuing challenging goals."

            These findings may be irrelevant for the millions of people who have to work two or three jobs in order to generate enough income to buy groceries and pay the rent. Folks in that position aren't thinking about self-worth so much as their kids eating. Social connections may indeed fray when you're working 60-70 hours per week, maybe seven days per week, but it's not as if you can step back and assess your self worth.

* * *

I vaguely knew, from somewhere, that copper kills bugs. I couldn't have answered a question about what kind of bugs. Because of Purdue engineering, I know now that it's bacteria (and not, alas, viruses, so this is not pertinent to the coronavirus). Like viruses, however, "bacterial pathogens can live on surfaces for days. What if frequently touched surfaces such as doorknobs could instantly kill them off?"

It seems that copper has been known to be an antibacterial agent for a very long time, at least back through the 19th century. Water that came through copper pipes had less slime and gook in it. Using it more widely, however, wasn't especially useful because "it typically takes hours for native copper surfaces to kill off bacteria," commented one of the engineers involved in the Purdue research.

What the Purdue folks discovered is "a laser treatment method that could potentially turn any metal surface into a rapid bacteria killer -- just by giving the metal's surface a different texture. . . . Metals such as copper normally have a really smooth surface, which makes it difficult for the metal to kill bacteria by contact." What they did was use the laser "to create nanoscale patterns on the metal's surface. The patterns produce a rugged texture that increases surface area, allowing more opportunity for bacteria to hit the surface and rupture on the spot." They hope to be able to expand the work to other kinds of surfaces that have widespread medical uses. They also concluded that "due to the simplicity and scalability of the technique, the researchers believe that it could easily be translated into existing medical device manufacturing processes."

The article didn't say this, but one would hope that making surfaces in hospitals more anti-bacterial, the risk of hospital infections would decrease—and thus the need for antibiotics that lead to superbugs would also decrease.

* * *

            I said no coronavirus, but I want to put in one thought, with apologies for returning to a topic that consumes many of us. I find it unnerving and annoying to wonder, every day, if I'll suddenly start showing symptoms (mostly the dry cough and the fever, and maybe loss of smell). With an incubation period of up to 14 days (something I read once again just this morning), I could have acquired the infection a long time ago from a source I could not possibly identify. Every innocent trip out of the house (what few of them I've made) means two weeks have to go by before I can be sure I'm not infected. And that's no guarantee, because in the meantime Kathy runs an errand, acquires the coronavirus but is asymptomatic, and so I don't even know I'm exposed. Argh. Elliott wrote to me a few days ago:


This virus seems hell-bent on infecting everyone on Earth and is well designed to do so. I don't buy into conspiracy theories but the extreme survival times on surfaces, the asymptomatic transmission, and this, it does seem like the sort of thing you'd engineer if you wanted to create a bioweapon. The one upside is it's not especially lethal. [The "this" he refers to is from a research link I sent to him:  "In a new study, researchers found that half of the patients they treated for mild COVID-19 infection still had coronavirus for up to eight days after symptoms disappeared."]

Let's be glad we're heading into spring, despite the fact that some of us are looking out the window at six inches of snow on the ground.

With warm regards—

Gary

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